The Dow rose 2.2% in the four weeks ending March 30, bringing the quarter- and year-to-date gain to over 8%.  Both the retail and wholesale indices beat the broader market for the month, as the industry continued to enjoy a nice rally. Apparel stocks increased by an average of 6% in the five-week period, while wholesale stocks increased by only half that, or almost 3%. In the first quarter of calendar 2012, and on year-to-date basis, wholesale stocks are up almost 20%, while retail … [Read more...]

Real GDP growth between the third and fourth quarters of last year was revised up to 3% from last month's 2.8% estimate. Though an improvement over the 1.8% expansion between the second and third quarters, it was on the low side of what many economy-watchers had expected. Although a small revision, it's definitely a step in the right direction on the road to recovery. The gain in fourth quarter GDP was helped by an increase in private inventory investment and accelerations in consumer … [Read more...]

The unemployment rate remained at 8.3% in February, with both the labor force and number of employed rising. Nonfarm employment increased by 227,000 during the month, less than the 243,000 rise in January.  Employment rose in professional and business services (+82,000 jobs), health care and social assistance (+61,000), leisure and hospitality (+44,000) and manufacturing (+31,000). Overall retail employment remained virtually unchanged in February. A total of 12.8 million Americans … [Read more...]

The unemployment rate dropped by a better-than-expected .2 percentage points in January, to 8.3%, a 34-month low. The rate has fallen by 0.8 points since August. Total nonfarm employment rose by 243,000, topping December's increase of  200,000. Private sector jobs rose by 253,000. The biggest surge in new jobs was in professional and business services, which added 70,000 to their rolls, 33,000 of which were in employment services.  Retail employment continued to trend up in … [Read more...]

A late Santa Claus Rally continued through most of January, with the Dow up 3.6% in the four weeks ending January 27. The index rose 4% in the first three weeks, but then European debt woes clouded the horizon a bit during the last week of the month. Corporate earnings for many big companies have been surprisingly good, and consumers kept a stiff upper lip as the job market improved and encouraging economic news on manufacturing and spending offset the tough housing environment.  The Retail … [Read more...]

Real GDP grew 2.8% between the third and fourth quarters of last year, according to recent government estimates. Though an improvement over the 1.8% expansion between the second and third quarters, it was on the low side of what many economy-watchers had expected. The gain in fourth quarter GDP was helped by an increase in private inventory investment and accelerations in consumer spending and residential real estate investment. Offsetting these gains were a deceleration in … [Read more...]

The unemployment rate dropped .2 percentage points in December, its biggest monthly decline since January, to 8.5%, a 33 month low. Total nonfarm employment rose by 200,000, much more than November's increase of over 120,000. Employment rose the most (+50,000 jobs) in transporation and warehousing , much of it due to seasonal hiring in the couriers and messengers industry - in other words, UPS, Fedex and other companies hiring to deliver all the e-commerce purchases. Many of these … [Read more...]

While the Dow finished the year up 5.5% at 12,218, the Apparel Strategist retail index rose by  only 4%, to 7,296. The manufacturing and wholesale index beat both, rising almost 10% in the 12 months ending December 30, finishing at 5,905.   In the retail sector, off-pricers Ross (ROST) and TJX Cos. (TJX) were the top performers, up 50% and 45% for the year, respectively. Both enjoyed steady gains in their stock prices throughout the year as consumers kept up their relentless quest … [Read more...]

The Dow dropped only negligibly in the five weeks ending December 30, beating our Apparel Strategist wholesale index, which declined by over 7%, and our retail stock index, which fell by 4.4%. The retail index also underperformed the Dow on a year-to-date basis, rising only 4% compared to the 5.5% increase in the overall market from December 31 2010 to December 30, 2011. The wholesale index handily beat both, however, rising almost 10% in the 12-month period.   Stock … [Read more...]