The unemployment rate dropped by a better-than-expected .2 percentage points in January, to 8.3%, a 34-month low. The rate has fallen by 0.8 points since August. Total nonfarm employment rose by 243,000, topping December's increase of  200,000. Private sector jobs rose by 253,000. The biggest surge in new jobs was in professional and business services, which added 70,000 to their rolls, 33,000 of which were in employment services.  Retail employment continued to trend up in … [Read more...]

A late Santa Claus Rally continued through most of January, with the Dow up 3.6% in the four weeks ending January 27. The index rose 4% in the first three weeks, but then European debt woes clouded the horizon a bit during the last week of the month. Corporate earnings for many big companies have been surprisingly good, and consumers kept a stiff upper lip as the job market improved and encouraging economic news on manufacturing and spending offset the tough housing environment.  The Retail … [Read more...]

Real GDP grew 2.8% between the third and fourth quarters of last year, according to recent government estimates. Though an improvement over the 1.8% expansion between the second and third quarters, it was on the low side of what many economy-watchers had expected. The gain in fourth quarter GDP was helped by an increase in private inventory investment and accelerations in consumer spending and residential real estate investment. Offsetting these gains were a deceleration in … [Read more...]

The unemployment rate dropped .2 percentage points in December, its biggest monthly decline since January, to 8.5%, a 33 month low. Total nonfarm employment rose by 200,000, much more than November's increase of over 120,000. Employment rose the most (+50,000 jobs) in transporation and warehousing , much of it due to seasonal hiring in the couriers and messengers industry - in other words, UPS, Fedex and other companies hiring to deliver all the e-commerce purchases. Many of these … [Read more...]

While the Dow finished the year up 5.5% at 12,218, the Apparel Strategist retail index rose by  only 4%, to 7,296. The manufacturing and wholesale index beat both, rising almost 10% in the 12 months ending December 30, finishing at 5,905.   In the retail sector, off-pricers Ross (ROST) and TJX Cos. (TJX) were the top performers, up 50% and 45% for the year, respectively. Both enjoyed steady gains in their stock prices throughout the year as consumers kept up their relentless quest … [Read more...]

The Dow dropped only negligibly in the five weeks ending December 30, beating our Apparel Strategist wholesale index, which declined by over 7%, and our retail stock index, which fell by 4.4%. The retail index also underperformed the Dow on a year-to-date basis, rising only 4% compared to the 5.5% increase in the overall market from December 31 2010 to December 30, 2011. The wholesale index handily beat both, however, rising almost 10% in the 12-month period.   Stock … [Read more...]

Real GDP grew 1.8% between the second and third quarters, according to recent government estimates, a revision downward from last month's estimate of 2%.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter was helped by an increase in nonresidential business  investment, consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending, and partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and state and local government spending and an increase in imports. … [Read more...]

The unemployment rate dropped .4 percentage points in November, its biggest monthly decline since January, to 8.6%, a 33 month low. Total nonfarm employment rose by 120,000, more than October's increase of over 100,000. Employment rose in the retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business service sectors, while government employment continued to trend down. Retail gained 50,000 jobs, more than twice the number added last month.  A total of 13.3 million … [Read more...]

The Dow dropped 8.2% in the four weeks ending November 25, beating our Apparel Strategist wholesale index, which declined almost 11%, but lagging the performance of our retail stock index, which fell by only 7.3% in the period. On a year-to-date basis, however, the retail and wholesale indices have both outperformed the Dow.   Stock Averages Month YTD Dow -8.2% -3.0% Retail -7.3% 0.9% Whsale/Mfg -10.8% 5.5% Cache (CACH) was the top performing retail … [Read more...]

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the second quarter, according to revised government estimates.  The rate was considerably higher than the 1.3% expansion of second quarter, but not as high as originally thought when preliminary estimates were released in October, indicating the recovery is proceeding more sluggishly than originally thought.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from … [Read more...]