Third Quarter GDP Revised Down in December

GDP

Real GDP grew 1.8% between the second and third quarters, according to recent government estimates, a revision downward from last month's estimate of 2%.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter was helped by an increase in nonresidential business  investment, consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending, and partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and state and local government spending and an increase in imports. … [Read more...]

Holiday 2011: A Work in Three Movements

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With the first official shopping week behind us, what’s on the program for the rest of the holiday season? Will it be smooth sailing, allowing retailers to end the year on an upbeat, or is there dissonance ahead? Like a classical concerto, Holiday 2011 appears to have three distinct parts. The first “movement,” which included Black Friday and Cyber Monday, was dramatically bold and exciting. More consumers – particularly the most value-conscious - did more of their shopping in those … [Read more...]

Unemployment Drops to 8.6% in November

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The unemployment rate dropped .4 percentage points in November, its biggest monthly decline since January, to 8.6%, a 33 month low. Total nonfarm employment rose by 120,000, more than October's increase of over 100,000. Employment rose in the retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business service sectors, while government employment continued to trend down. Retail gained 50,000 jobs, more than twice the number added last month.  A total of 13.3 million … [Read more...]

Industry Stocks, Dow, Fall in November

StckIndexes

The Dow dropped 8.2% in the four weeks ending November 25, beating our Apparel Strategist wholesale index, which declined almost 11%, but lagging the performance of our retail stock index, which fell by only 7.3% in the period. On a year-to-date basis, however, the retail and wholesale indices have both outperformed the Dow.   Stock Averages Month YTD Dow -8.2% -3.0% Retail -7.3% 0.9% Whsale/Mfg -10.8% 5.5% Cache (CACH) was the top performing retail … [Read more...]

Third Quarter GDP Revised Down in October

GDP

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the second quarter, according to revised government estimates.  The rate was considerably higher than the 1.3% expansion of second quarter, but not as high as originally thought when preliminary estimates were released in October, indicating the recovery is proceeding more sluggishly than originally thought.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from … [Read more...]

Unemployment Edges Down to 9% in October

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The unemployment rate edged down ever so slightly to 9 percent in October. Total nonfarm employment rose by 80,000, less than September's heftier increase of over 100,000. Employment rose in the service sector (business services, leisure and hospitality), health care and mining, but declined in the government sector.  Retail gained 18,000 jobs.  A total of 13.9 million Americans remain unemployed, little unchanged during the month.  Unemployment among adult men was 8.8%, but … [Read more...]

GDP Soars in Third Quarter, Topping Estimates

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Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the second quarter, according to preliminary government estimates.  The rate was almost double that of the upwardly revised 1.3% growth of second quarter, and higher than anticipated. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending, and were hurt by a decrease in … [Read more...]

Unemployment Needle Stuck at 9.1 in September

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The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1 percent in September. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 103,000, a nice increase, but the number of people looking for jobs rose proportionally. Employment increased in the service sector, health care and construction, but declined in the government sector.  Retail gained 10,000 jobs.  A total of 14 million Americans remain unemployed, relatively unchanged during the month.  Unemployment among adult men was 8.8%, but only 8.1% for … [Read more...]

Gainers and Losers of 2010

Stocks had another decent year in 2010. The Dow rose 11%, only half the pace of 2009’s gain, but  2009’s performance was compared to a year in which the Dow lost almost a third of its value. Most of the improvement in 2010 occurred late in the year, thanks to encouraging reports on holiday sales. With discounting and couponing so prevalent this year, though, it will be interesting to see how earnings turn out. Industry Stock Stats Our retail and wholesale indices climbed almost 17% and … [Read more...]

What Will the Recovery Look Like?

 The Fall apparel-buying season has a  brandnewness about it that none other does. In Spring, there's the recycling of styles that worked for Resort. Then there’s Summer, which is basically a natural next step from Spring, with fewer sleeves. Winter is Fall - only moreso. But Fall hits you like a bucket of ice water on a balmy beach day. Supple leather accessories in chocolate brown, shiny black, and burgundy go with sweater knits in deep greens and mustards, heather wools, and crisp … [Read more...]