With the first official shopping week behind us, what’s on the program for the rest of the holiday season? Will it be smooth sailing, allowing retailers to end the year on an upbeat, or is there dissonance ahead? Like a classical concerto, Holiday 2011 appears to have three distinct parts. The first “movement,” which included Black Friday and Cyber Monday, was dramatically bold and exciting. More consumers – particularly the most value-conscious - did more of their shopping in those … [Read more...]

After a five-month break, and by popular demand, The Apparel Strategist is back in business in an exclusively online format. We hope you find the new site easy to navigate  and the content useful. Thank you to all our loyal readers who encouraged us to resume publication. There are a few changes. First of all, you no longer need a user ID or password to access the site - the site is open format, and the content, charts, data and analysis are all free. Second, going forward you will be … [Read more...]

What’s the biggest challenge facing the apparel business today? Inflation, inflation, inflation. Everyone we’ve talked to, in every step along the supply chain, is worried about the impact that rising raw materials costs - particularly the price of cotton, which comprises the lion’s share of all apparel sold in the US - will have on cost of goods sold in 2011. The Concern Is Real. Cotton prices have risen 140% in the past year. This threat to margins, which had just begun to recover … [Read more...]

Is it over for bricks and mortar? There are some well-respected retail pundits out there predicting the imminent, or at least eventual, demise of physical retail stores. Their evidence? Most retailers are closing outlets faster than they’re opening them. Malls have huge amounts of empty space. People are less inclined to drive out of their way, park, and dedicate several hours to shopping. With e-commerce, social networking and free shipping now a way of life, old-fashioned shopping - … [Read more...]

Stocks had another decent year in 2010. The Dow rose 11%, only half the pace of 2009’s gain, but  2009’s performance was compared to a year in which the Dow lost almost a third of its value. Most of the improvement in 2010 occurred late in the year, thanks to encouraging reports on holiday sales. With discounting and couponing so prevalent this year, though, it will be interesting to see how earnings turn out. Industry Stock Stats Our retail and wholesale indices climbed almost 17% and … [Read more...]

Confused and befuddled about  what to do next in this complex marketplace? Wondering why some brands, like Polo and Guess? have been able to succeed, if not thrive, while others, like Linens & Things and Steve & Barry's, didn't make it through the first year of the recession? Amazed that more struggling brands haven't yet called it quits? You’re not alone, but help is on the way. The New Rules of Retail, by Robin Lewis and Michael Dart and released today by publisher Palgrave … [Read more...]

 (Published November 2010) The trials and tribulations of the American Middle Class have been well-documented of late, and include, among other things, high unemployment rates, housing foreclosures, evaporating 401K values, rising gas prices, and meteoric health-care costs. However, while all of that gloomy stuff has being happening here, there has been a quiet explosion taking place elsewhere in the world.  Deja Vu A few months ago, the Asian Development Bank, or ADB, a nonprofit … [Read more...]

 The Fall apparel-buying season has a  brandnewness about it that none other does. In Spring, there's the recycling of styles that worked for Resort. Then there’s Summer, which is basically a natural next step from Spring, with fewer sleeves. Winter is Fall - only moreso. But Fall hits you like a bucket of ice water on a balmy beach day. Supple leather accessories in chocolate brown, shiny black, and burgundy go with sweater knits in deep greens and mustards, heather wools, and crisp … [Read more...]

Theories abound regarding how the next 15 months will play out. Some maintain the recovery is upon us and will continue to gain steam. Others feel the economy, and therefore the retail market, is in for a double-dip in early 2011. Here’s our version, for what it’s worth.  Fourth Quarter 2010 The Holiday shopping season, which is virtually upon us, will be flat to slightly better than last year. Although clothing and accessories will be popular gift items, prices will be low given all … [Read more...]

Oscar Wilde once said, “A man who pays his bills on time is soon forgotten.” If that’s true, then millions of Americans are forever locked into the hearts and memory banks of US retailers. At last count there were 200 million credit card holders in this country with a total of $880 billion in revolving card debt. Only 50% of the balances are paid off each month, which means a significant number of Americans are paying upwards of 12% interest on over $400 billion in revolving loans … [Read more...]